The Autograph Market and How to Tell Real From Fake

A signed baseball is one of the most personal objects in sports. A card is a printed image. A jersey is a uniform. But an autograph is a mark that a human being made with his own hand, and the connection between the signer and the object is what gives it value. It is also what makes the autograph market one of the most fraud-prone segments of the memorabilia industry.

The FBI estimated in 2000, during its Operation Bullpen investigation, that between 50 and 90 percent of autographed sports memorabilia in circulation was forged. That estimate has not improved meaningfully in the decades since. The market is better policed, and authentication technology has advanced, but the fundamental problem remains. A skilled forger can produce a convincing signature faster than any verification system can catch it.

The authentication industry exists to address this problem. Three companies dominate the market. PSA/DNA (a division of PSA's parent company, Collectors) authenticates autographs by comparing submitted signatures to a database of known exemplars. James Spence Authentication (JSA) uses a similar process and is considered particularly strong on vintage signatures. Beckett Authentication Services (BAS) rounds out the top three.

Each company issues a certificate of authenticity (COA) and affixes a tamper-proof sticker with a unique serial number to the authenticated item. The sticker and the COA together form the chain of trust. A signed baseball with a PSA/DNA or JSA sticker is worth significantly more than the same baseball with a COA from an unknown company, because collectors trust the authentication process.

For collectors buying autographed items, the basic rules are straightforward. Buy authenticated items from reputable dealers and auction houses. If an item has a COA from a company you don't recognize, treat it as suspect. Compare the signature to known authentic examples, which are available through PSA's and JSA's online databases. Be especially cautious with deceased players, whose signatures cannot be verified through in-person comparison. And be aware that secretarial signatures, signed by a player's assistant or family member, are common for popular players and can fool even experienced collectors.

Babe Ruth's signature is the most forged in the hobby. His autograph changed dramatically over his career, from a careful, legible signature in his early years to a large, looping scrawl in his later years. The early signatures are worth many times more than the late ones, and the early ones are also the most commonly forged because they command the highest prices.

The safest way to buy autographed memorabilia is at auction from established houses (Heritage, Goldin, Robert Edward Auctions) or from dealers who guarantee authenticity with a return policy. The cheapest way is to get autographs in person, at games, appearances, or private signings. A ball you watched a player sign is the most trustworthy item in your collection, even if it never gets a sticker.